This is the new unemployment rate chart, so it’s apparently time to celebrate:
Except for the number of people dropping out of the labor force:
And the sinking employment ratio:
And the fact that 90% of the gains were in part-time positions (showing the increasing desperation of job seekers):
Posted in: Economics and Politics
Alte
February 3, 2012
Normally I would wait until the evening, but this is BIG NEWS. Stocks are going up like crazy on the news and Obama’s poll numbers just jumped.
But it’s… um… not true. The improving unemployment rate is actually a reflection of the fact that things are getting worse and the gov is fudging numbers to cover it up. Insane.
Marxist-Leninist girl
February 3, 2012
I wonder what’s going on the Daily Kos. I’m too lazy to check.
I loathe liberals and “progressives”. I loathe most leftists in fact, except Marxist-Leninists.
Elspeth
February 3, 2012
Yes, the government uses things like the number of people getting unemployment benefits while failing to account for the people whose benefits have run out, or the people who found part-time work. Sure, those folks aren’t getting unemployment checks, but they’re getting food stamps.
They never account for the underemployed, do they?
Professor Hale
February 3, 2012
part timers is further obscured because it doesn’t account for one person holding multiple jobs. There is not a one-to-one relationship between part time jobs and employees.
Chris
February 3, 2012
Come on, guys. This is soviet reporting 101.
The more advances systsem (used, to my shame,where I live) is to coercively encourage the long term unemployed onto disability benefit, into training (interest free student loans that will never, never be paid off) and early retirement (a variation of disability stating that you are too old to get a competitive job, while paradoxically increasing the official retirement ave, now 67, towards 70 or even 75). And counting any paid work, even one hour a week, as employed.
This is Mirrors. And Smoke.
David Alexander
February 3, 2012
Stocks are going up like crazy on the news and Obama’s poll numbers just jumped.
You seem to think that’s a bad thing…
Marxist-Leninist girl
February 3, 2012
So, Alte thinks Gingrich or Romney will have a positive impact?
Rusty Shackleford
February 3, 2012
So, Alte thinks Gingrich or Romney will have a positive impact?
… what?
A Lady
February 3, 2012
http://maxedoutmama.blogspot.com/2012/02/january-employment-2012.html
That lady’s commentary, as always, clarifies things. The underlying structural problems are real, but there is also, despite everything, actual improvement happening as well. But it is fragile and could snap under the regulatory burdens roaring down the pike.
Daniel de León
February 3, 2012
“… what?”
LOL. Beat me to it.
Alte
February 3, 2012
A Lady, she’s making a major assumption that I disagree with:
They said the same thing in Germany, in the 90s, and it did. not. happen. Companies and the government are not going to replace most of the early retirees with younger workers as the positions they vacate will be reorganized and then shrink in number. They have enormous worker pools and will just shift people around to keep things going without new hires. Also, the early retirements don’t cost the government more per day, but they do shrink the tax base, so younger workers will get more expensive to hire because they have to make up the difference.
Also, rising inflation means that a lot of retirees won’t actually leave, so they will end up undercutting younger workers because their retirement means that they can afford to work for less or take part-time employment.
That said, there has been improvement in the predominantly-male productive industries of construction, mining, and manufacturing, which matches what we’ve been expecting. Also, the weather has been crazy-warm lately. I didn’t even need a coat outside today, and it’s been like that for a week or more now, with no end in sight. But this means no winter break for construction (so the huge jump is because of it being out of season, and the seasonal adjustment), which means that they’re pulling work forward, not that the work available is necessarily increasing in total.
Marxist-Leninist girl
February 3, 2012
So does Alte prefer a Republican beating Obama in November?
Heathcliff
February 3, 2012
Marxist-Leninist troll.
Chris
February 3, 2012
MLG, it really doesn’t matter. Because you. are. screwed. There are three ways the government can deal with this debt.
1. Hyperinflation. Currently called quantitative easing.
2. A move to a socialisation — nationalise debt and write it off.
3. Default.
Expect an austerity budget, together with some good collectivist rabble rousing, regardless of who is in power.
David Alexander
February 3, 2012
but they do shrink the tax base
So start taxing pensions.
David Alexander
February 3, 2012
A move to a socialisation — nationalise debt and write it off.
That sounds like a full-assed version of the Chinese solution which is to pretend that the bad debts didn’t happen, and “keep on keeping on” with the same lending practices.